Tuesday, December 22, 2015

I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas

I'm heading home for the holidays soon.

It's been unseasonably warm this winter, at least here in Ontario, so much so that squirrels in Ottawa are getting fat. I wanted to put together a really cool post predicting the chance of a white Christmas using lots of historical climate data, but it turns out Environment Canada has already put together something like that by crunching some numbers. We can just slam this into Google Fusion tables and get some nice visualizations of simple data.

Map



It seems everything above a certain latitude has a much higher chance of having a white Christmas in recent times than those closer to the America border and on the coast, which I'm going to guess is likely due to how cold it gets in those areas on average during the winter. Sadly Toronto has less than a coin-flip's chance of a white Christmas in recent times, with only a 40% chance of snow on the ground come the holiday.

Chart

But just because there's snow on the ground doesn't necessary mean that your yuletide weather is that worthy of a Christmas storybook or holiday movie. Environment Canada also has a definition for what they call a "Perfect Christmas": 2 cm or more of snow on the ground and snowfall at some point during the day. Which Canadian cities had the most of these beautiful Christmases in the past?


Interestingly Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada are better represented here, which I imagine has something to do with how much precipitation they get due to proximity to bodies of water, but hey, I'm not a meteorologist.

A white Christmas would be great this year, but I'm not holding my breath. Either way it will be good to sit by the fire with an eggnog and not think about data for a while. Happy Holidays!